The state of economics

Macroeconomist Confesses to Lack of IQ

I often ask macroeconomists why their models are so simple, far simpler than the real world. I asked one macroeconomist what “constraint prevents you from examining less simplified models?” His answer was clear and direct: “In my case it’s IQ” but he goes on to claim that this is true of “mainstream macro people.” He […]

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Congress Investigates DSGE Models: One Witness Says Big Problem Is The Lack of Brain Power

You may have guessed that I enjoy poking the ruling elite in economics. That was the case with a self-declared tyrant that threatens the careers of my students, a Fed VC who thinks it is best to have neither his students at Columbia nor researchers at the Fed be trained in modern computational skills, and

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Macroeconomists endorse Barro (1979). I prefer Dehejia and Rowe (1995).

At today’s macro conference hosted by John Taylor, George Hall presented his paper with Tom Sargent titled “Three world wars: Fiscal-monetary consequences” at today’s Taylor conference. James Bullard asked Hall and Sargent to compare their analysis of taxation and spending with the Barro theory. In their paper, Hall and Sargent say “After World War I

Macroeconomists endorse Barro (1979). I prefer Dehejia and Rowe (1995). Read More »

Why can’t the Fed be as good as the Bank of Canada?

I am at John Taylor’s annual macroeconomic conference on monetary policy. The first panel included comments from Richard Clarida and Larry Summers. Time for questions ran out so I put mine here. Larry Summers said he asked an RA to run simulations of FRB/US, the primary Fed model, and reported that the results said a

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